Intelligence & Risk Engine — Escalation Index, Regime, CVaR, Trade Sizing

Escalation Index—

—

Exposure cap—

CVaR guard—

Paper P&L$0

cycle 0 · next in —

◎

Sense

—

▲

Escalation Index

—

◈

Regime

—

⚠

CVaR Guard

—

Kelly Sizing

—

⚡

Execute

—

Escalation Index Live Triggers

base 12 + weighted active triggers · 0 calm — 100 max

0 = calm · 100 = maximum escalation

Index history — this session & prior visits

Live triggers are detected each cycle from real feeds: Polymarket repricings, Binance spot & stablecoin pegs, and the whale tape. SIM triggers let you stress the pipeline by hand — flip one and watch regime, guard and sizing react.

Active trigger sources

Regime & CVaR Circuit Breaker Real 180d History

Binance daily closes

Asset / strategy

Confidence level

Portfolio value ($)

VaR (95%)

—

CVaR (tail avg)

—

Max drawdown 180d

—

real, not simulated

Circuit breaker 15% NAV

—

Signal → Trade Sizing Real Markets

min(Kelly, cap) × regime multiplier

Bankroll ($)

Risk tolerance (Kelly cap)

Regime multiplier

Loading live markets…

Total recommended deployed capital —

Model prob = market price tilted by 7-day momentum (a deliberately simple demo model — swap in your own). Sizing = min(full Kelly, tolerance cap) × regime exposure multiplier, with a boost when an active geopolitical trigger matches the market's category. The Escalation Index doesn't just display — it mechanically shrinks or grows every stake below.

Agent Console Paper Execution

autopilot takes the top signal each cycle

Loop log

Paper ledger — marked to live odds —

No paper positions yet — take a trade from the signals panel or enable Autopilot.